Our modelling

To develop an indicative emissions pathway the CURB Tool was used to model climate action, with additional bespoke modelling to address sectors not covered in CURB, such as industrial processes.

CURB was developed by the World Bank in partnership with C40 Cities, the Global Covenant of Mayors and AECOM to enable cities to model climate action using city specific data.

Using a customised version of the CURB tool incorporating local data, context and emissions factors, a baseline representation of emissions was established. A range of variables were then adjusted to measure potential changes over time against a projected business as usual scenario.

The projected business as usual emissions scenario modelled by CURB reflects estimated population growth and growth rate assumptions across sectors and activities.

Auckland Council Research and Evaluation Unit, RIMU, also developed a projected business as usual emissions scenario. Both projections were reviewed by Arup, an independent consultancy firm, and found to be comparable.

CURB uses generic variables and estimation of outcomes rather than projecting the impacts of specific investments or policies, for example construction of a rapid transit line or changes to land use policies.

As with any model, CURB is subject to limitations including use of generalised variables and default values based on average or proxy data. Its use projecting potential future emissions scenarios for Auckland is to provide guidance only.

The actions presented for each priority are not necessarily calibrated to CURB’s inputs and outputs.

Halving emissions by 2030

Our goal to reduce net emissions by 50 per cent by 2030 brings into focus the need for significant and rapid climate action to deliver decarbonisation across sectors.

Key aspects of the modelled decarbonisation pathway at 2030 include:

Transport

Auckland’s largest source of emissions represents 68 per cent of the overall emissions reduction modelled for 2030.

Modelled actions for reducing transport emissions include:

• remote working and reduced trip lengths – around 10 per cent emissions reduction
• shift to public transport, walking, and cycling – 14 per cent emissions reduction
• switching to electric and zero emissions vehicles (passenger, commercial and freight) – 55 per cent emissions reduction
• increase fuel efficiency of vehicles
• increase transport orientated developments.

Stationary energy

Modelled actions include:

• decarbonising process heat through switching from gas to electricity, in addition to best practice technology and energy efficiency measure – 36 per cent of emissions reductions
• renewable grid electricity increases to 94 per cent – 37 per cent of the emissions reductions
• retrofitting 50 per cent of existing residential and commercial buildings to a high standard of energy efficiency and replacing natural gas boilers with heat pumps for heating (75 per cent replaced) and hot water (50 per cent replaced) significantly reduces emissions from energy use in buildings
• all new residential and commercial buildings run at net zero emissions from 2030.

Industrial process and product use

Steel making accounts for most emissions from industrial processes in Auckland and presents significant decarbonisation challenges.

The 23 per cent reduction in emissions in this sector focuses on energy efficiency and the adoption of best practice technology.

Waste

Although ambitious waste reduction targets have been modelled, the emission reductions from the waste sector make a small contribution to the decarbonisation pathway.

Agriculture, forestry, and land use

Methane emissions from livestock decrease by 10 per cent in line with the Climate Change Response (Zero Carbon) Amendment Act.

On land emissions, such as those from fertiliser use, are also reduced.

Extensive tree planting delivers added carbon sequestration to reduce net emissions.

Find out more about our modelled climate actions and targets.

Gross emissions reduction modelled for each sector from 2016 to 2030 

Note - Modelled emissions for the waste sector remain at around the same level from 2016 to 2030. Total gross emissions and the relative decarbonisation of sectors from 2016 to 2030